Thursday, April 10, 2003

Iraq teaches everyone that having nukes is the only thing that deters the US. What should be done about N. Korea?

The obvious thing is that this is for China and S. Korea to sort out between them. Western powers should be encouraging China and S. Korea to work together on this. China is the only country with any influence over the N. Korean government. And, re-unification with the south is the most attractive option for most Northerners. Between them they can probably encourage a diplomatic opening.

China can show the north how to incorporate quite a lot of a capitalist economy without losing political control. A more open, capitalist north would want to re-unify with, and learn from the south, the way China wanted Hong Kong. And the south, without excessive US pressure, would be tempted.

But the prospect is deeply scary to the US imperialists. Suppose North and South Korea come to an agreement to unify, but keep the nukes? A unified Korea with the economic strength of the south and the military strength of the north would be a serious contender on the international stage. It could play the same role of attendant to China's growing superpower status, as the UK or Europe does to the US. Japan would fall further within this sphere of influence. (The equivalent of Germany in Europe?)

And it's likely that a revitalized East would want the US out ... of Japan, of Taiwan, of S. Korea.

So my bet is that the imperialists don't want this solution to the North Korea problem.

Testable Predictions :

Expect to see US pressure on the south Koreans not to build too many diplomatic bridges to the north. Expect more military "investment" by the US in south Korea. Expect not much to be done about the north. A divided Korea is the key to preventing an Asian block.




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